iDecide is an award-winning software program for decision and risk analysis. With iDecide you can quickly build influence diagrams describing the risk or decision and then run Monte Carlo simulation. The result is a statistically accurate representation of the range and likelihood of all possible outcomes. In other words, iDecide gives you the power to handle risks and decisions like a professional.
Spreadsheets Only Help Some of the Time
If you’ve been using spreadsheet models to decide the best course of action, chances are you have been frustrated because you don’t have everything you need. You are lacking precise data, costs and completion dates vary, or you may need to compare options that use completely different types of information. Usually, you need to make a decision quickly. A spreadsheet works well when you’ve got all the information you need and when information fits neatly into the rows and columns the spreadsheet provides. How often does that happen?
 iDecide Works the Way You Think
iDecide lets you work the way you think. You sketch out a diagram model that graphically shows the different factors involved in a particular decision and how they are related. You mark the elements of your decision that are uncertain or vary. You include the things you care about and skip the things you don’t. Your diagram makes the whole decision process easy for anyone to follow.
Then iDecide's powerful simulation engine runs through your diagram and simulates all combinations of factors to determine the likelihood of each possible outcome. With this information in hand, you can quickly see which option makes the most sense and the most money for your situation.
Weigh Your Options and Explore Your Opportunities
Use iDecide to model your decisions and a lot of good things happen. First, you see what all your options are and which ones make the most sense. iDecide handles all types of information so that you actually can compare apples to oranges - something your spreadsheet could never help you do.
 Distribute Lessons Learned
With the Portfolio edition of iDecide, you can distribute the model you've developed for others to use. The model remains the same but the user can change the data to reflect their situation. Then they can run simulations and product results. Capture that expert-level knowledge and re-use it throughout your organization.
Influence Diagrams
You begin by creating a graphical picture of your situation, known as an influence diagram. Influence diagrams exist as a powerful method to structure a decision situation. Compared to other methods, influence diagrams are easier to understand and show the relationship between different decision factors better. If you are presenting your decision situation to another individual, influence diagrams are the perfect choice to get the message across.
The diagram is comprised of "nodes" and "edges." Each variable in your decision - cost of goods, revenue, etc. - is represented as a node. Nodes can be linked together to show the relationships between them; these are represented by lines called edges.
Some of the nodes have defined values, but many will vary, and this is where the power of iDecide comes into play. You can mix and match different types of nodes and different ranges of values - whatever is needed to describe your situation. For example, you may know the price of a material, but you’re not sure exactly how many you’ll sell, and maybe, there’s a 1-in-3 chance that a new competitor will enter the market. All this is included in your diagram.
Monte Carlo Simulation
After you lay out your diagram, it’s time to model it. iDecide uses Monte Carlo methods to simulate your situation and give you the range and likelihood of all possible outcomes. Monte Carlo modeling takes randomly selected values of every node in the model and uses them in combination with each other until a statistically accurate representation of all possible combinations has been created. What this means to you is that within seconds you see what’s most likely to happen. With this information, you can decide the best course of action.
The Results
 The results of the simulation are displayed for you in the Analysis Notebook. This notebook contains simulation reports and all the graphs and charts you chose to include in your simulation. The simulation may show you that the best place to spend your marketing dollars is in direct mail instead of advertising. It may show you that you should hire additional contract workers to speed up the project, or that you’re underestimating the costs on your last three bids.
What If Scenarios
 The results of the simulation often will lead to more questions - the "what if" kind. What if marketing promotions cost 15% more? What if only one contract worker is used? What if you can lower your costs by 10%? All of these questions are easily answered using the What If feature in iDecide. With the What If feature, you can adjust the value of a variable by a percentage to see how it affects the overall results. Here, you can fine tune your decision until you get the results you need.
Features and Benefits
 Build influence diagrams to graphically represent any decision situation.
Plan for any uncertainties in your decision.
Perform Monte Carlo methods to simulate your model thousands of times to show you the likelihood and range of possible outcomes.
View colorful and informative graphs and tables displaying the simulation results.
Produce high quality reports and analysis.
Use the Model Builder to automate the process of laying out a decision model that fits your needs.
Browse through the collection of pre-made sample models for ideas.
Use iDecide as a stand-alone product or integrate with Microsoft Excel™.
Build Upon Your Experience and Intuition
Once you start using iDecide, you’ll find it indispensable for making better decisions for your business or organization. You’ll have models to build for quick decisions such as leasing or buying equipment. You’ll also have models that you build and modify over time for ongoing decisions like pricing or staffing. Take your experience, your intuition, and add iDecide to get the most out of your business!
|
